A Blast from the Past, the Russian Bear Awakens

We are certainly going back to the 70's with the economy in the dumpster, the specter of inflation, a war without end in progress and now the rumblings of the Russian Bear. We actually have US aircraft intercepting Russian bombers approaching US airspace a' la cold war! The attack on Georgia was certainly a long planned exercise that the Georgian president walked into. After handing out Russian passports by the truckload, conducting military exercises on the boarder and building up large military stores this campaign was very well planned. Unlike the Bush administration they seem to have put this one together pretty well. As the Georgians got spanked, everyone on the Russian periphery was warned - the Bear is back, the USA is powerless to help you. The more important question is what is the Russian objective? Is this limited to curtailing the Republic of Georgia which happens to have a nice oil pipeline running through it's territory, bypassing Russia, or does it portend larger objectives.

The Poles have already seen enough - they know the Russian routine and quickly inked a deal to deploy missile interceptors on their territory. Here, the Russian Bear again roars indignant and threatening - over a system that can only defend against perhaps ten missiles. Technically, this is a mere speed bump compared to what Russia could deliver to overwhelm this paltry defense. So, what gives with all the threats and hysteria from the Russians?

Essentially, the only logical conclusion is that it is the symbolic nature of the deal that offends the Russians. It certainly can't be the military capabilities of this system. Symbolically is shows the US in solidarity with Poland and possibly with other countries that have escaped the Russian orbit. Unlike many middle eastern countries (or the Bush administration for that matter) the use of logic will usually root out true Russian objectives. The overriding objective seems to be to regain Russian influence and prestige in the former Soviet Republics, while limiting the influence of western powers especially the USA. This may not be a return to the Moscovy empire of before, but the reduction of its neighbors to a vassal state seems to fit the plan.

Now that Russia is rested and ready, flush with oil cash and with a resurgent spirit and bold leadership they feel they should regain their rightful place as one of the preeminent powers in the world. Meanwhile, the USA has been fixated on Iraq where the action is certainly - Not! The USA is practically bankrupt anyway in need of Chinese support to pay its debts. The time is ripe for a Russian resurgence.

What's next? Ukraine is certainly on the target list, the Baltic states probably and of course Georgia. The expansion of Nato has put the US in a perilous position since it is now guarantor of several states that boarder on the Russian periphery but which would be difficult to support against a Russian onslaught. This onslaught would take the form of an application of soft power, economics and finally military power.

In supporting these states the US and NATO is in a similar position as the British and French who extended "protection" to the Poles in WWII even though they lacked a clear means of supporting them. Remember in 1939 Poland was far removed and shared no boarders with the Allied Powers and would not admit Russian troops on their soil. How could you give assurances to them? Based on what? What support is the US and NATO willing to spend to support some of these republics? Poland is one thing, but the Baltic States, Georgia and Ukraine are in a perilous position. Will they tack to Moscow or look for more empty assurances from the Americans?

The ball is back in Russia's court, try to guess where they go next.