The Decline and Fall of the United States - Part I

For decades many people have compared the current Pax Americana to the last days of Rome. The wealth, the unrivaled power, the size and scope of the US just seemed so, so Roman. Every time they pronounced the end was neigh something came around and radically changed the equation leaving them to appear fools and knaves. Every time the United States was thought to be on its last legs, yet it got up and excelled.

In the early 80s we looked up at the "Japan that could say no" and listened to songs such as the one that went, "I'm Uncle Sam I bailed you out when you were down so help me now I'm fall'n, fall'n". Paul Kennedy wrote a brilliant book whose thesis was that Japan was about to supplant the United States as the dominant power. This time these Cassandra's may be about to proven right or even worse. They may be too optimistic.

The United States achieved preeminent status only after WWII, while the rest of the world was shattered and only America was on its feet. Western Europe was on life support, the communists were busy ruining their countries and the Asian giants of China and India were in nowhere land. The United States still largely self sufficient, exporting American know how and products to a needy world. It's capitalistic economy with a firm financial and business footing, enormous industrial facilities and a well trained and educated work force not burdened down by oppressive social programs and government dictates would go on to dominate the world. Meanwhile, the US Navy protected access to foreign markets and resources.

In this environment a sense of entitlement and superiority were allowed to breed as the United States was able to exploit it's position and grow in a period of unprecedented peace and prosperity. Vietnam and Korea were mere pin pricks, economically speaking to this giant that could do no wrong. To some it was a shiny city on a hill, a gift of god and a birthright to Americans with their superior values and upright religious upbringing. Economic factors are enough to explain this phenomenal rise, without invoking the almighty.

The equation for the success of any country at any time has been simple - it must be competitive with the rest of the world to maintain or grow it's relative position. This is mostly an economic measurement as opposed to a measurement of military power as all power ultimately flows from a country's economy and the vitality of it's people. In the few decades after WWII, United States was still largely self sufficient for energy, food, textiles, automobiles and all forms of modern electronics and technology. It's work force was on average better educated, mobile and motivated than anywhere else on earth. It's businesses could thrive while the US Navy protected access to foreign markets and resources. Everything was perfect. Sure, the Soviets could huff and puff, but they was never any serious competition.

The US encouraged it's allies with free trade and open markets for the good of all, except of course in agricultural products. In many ways the US of the period resembles the British empire and especially it's trade policies in the late 19th and early 20th century. Britain maintained freedom of the seas with its Navy and a free trade policy even as countries like the United States would out compete them in their own markets and in foreign markets leading their own producers into decline. What goes around, comes around.

The power and wealth of the United States led many of its leaders to always envision the power and might of the United States as it was in the glory days of WWII; as the country that could do anything it wanted. The great deeds of the US in the World Wars, the Civil War and the Revolution were taught over and over in public schools. World history was glossed over as only preparatory to the great American pinnacle of achievement. Gone were the fitful days of the Great Depression, the long painful 1870s deflation, the dark days of the Civil War when everyone thought the country was about to shatter, the Jacksonian depression of 1840s, the burning of Washington in 1814, etc, etc. Replacing it was a country schooled with the idea that it was endlessly bountiful and prosperous and that it would always be.

The US has always had its myth of American exceptionalism, it started at the countries founding. In many ways the United States has been the big exception. Even during major wars including the Civil War and the World Wars the United State's economy actually expanded! Most countries suffer reverses during these ill times. There was also a great deal of luck in not being attached to the European or Asian land masses and suffering the depredations of foreign armies. The US was also lucky in never being burdened by an entrenched aristocracy with a cultured elite controlling the levers of the economy. In American anyone could get ahead if they had drive, ambition and know how. In America education was more highly looked upon that in Europe where the elite controlled access. The combination of a better educated, more motivated workforce on a huge continent with huge untapped resources is a recipe for unparalleled success.

Next - What went wrong.